基于相似时间段匹配和图建模的分布式光伏超短期功率预测
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TM32

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国家自然科学基金资助项目(62103132)


Ultra-short-term power forecasting for distributed photovoltaic systems based on similar time period matching and graph modeling
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    摘要:

    精确的分布式光伏功率预测有助于电力系统平稳运行。为了进一步提高分布式光伏预测模型对历史数据中时间信息和空间信息的精准匹配和辨识能力,文中提出一种基于相似时间段匹配和图建模理论的分布式光伏混合预测模型。首先,考虑分布式光伏功率数据的时间相关性,利用相似时间段匹配方法识别对预测最重要的功率时段,并提出一种改进的Transformer模型提取光伏功率时间特征;其次,针对分布式光伏出力的空间相关性,基于子区域划分结果构建分布式光伏图结构模型,并建立基于图注意力机制的多层双向长短期记忆(multi-layer bidirectional long short-term memory, MBLSTM)网络模型,提取光伏功率空间特征;最后,提出一种分布式光伏功率时空特征融合机制,增强模型对时空信息的理解与利用,并建立分布式光伏超短期功率预测组合模型。实验结果表明,所提组合模型可以有效提取分布式光伏功率的时间信息和空间信息,相比于其他模型有更高的预测精度。

    Abstract:

    Accurate power forecasting of distributed photovoltaic (PV) is crucial for the safe and stable operation of power systems. To enhance the ability of distributed PV forecasting models to accurately match and identify temporal and spatial information from historical data, a hybrid forecasting model for distributed PV based on similar time period matching and graph modeling theory is proposed. Initially, considering the temporal correlation of distributed PV power data, the method of similar time period matching is utilized to identify the most critical power periods for prediction, and an improved Transformer model is proposed to extract temporal features of PV power. Secondly, in response to the spatial correlation of distributed PV output, a graph structure model of distributed PV is constructed based on sub-area division results, and a graph attention mechanism-based multi-layer bidirectional long short-term memory (MBLSTM) neural network model is established to extract spatial features of PV power. Finally, a spatiotemporal feature fusion mechanism for distributed PV power is proposed, which enhances the model's understanding and utilization of spatiotemporal information, and a short-term power prediction ensemble model for distributed PV is established. Experimental results indicate that the proposed ensemble model can effectively extract both temporal and spatial information of distributed PV power, demonstrating higher prediction accuracy compared to other models.

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周毅,李成,蔡昌春,石庆伦,侯世玺.基于相似时间段匹配和图建模的分布式光伏超短期功率预测[J].电力工程技术,2026,45(4):41-52. ZHOU Yi, LI Cheng, CAI Changchun, SHI Qinglun, HOU Shixi. Ultra-short-term power forecasting for distributed photovoltaic systems based on similar time period matching and graph modeling[J]. Electric Power Engineering Technology,2026,45(4):41-52.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2025-07-20
  • 最后修改日期:2025-10-11
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-15
  • 出版日期: 2026-04-28
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