基于Temporal Fusion Transformer模型的变压器油中溶解气体预测方法
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TM854

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国家自然科学基金资助项目(52407024)


Prediction method for dissolved gas in transformer oil based on the Temporal Fusion Transformer model
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    摘要:

    油中溶解气体是评估变压器运行状态的重要指标,准确预测油中溶解气体的发展趋势有助于预防电力变压器故障。为解决传统预测模型中单一变量造成的预测效率低下,文中提出一种基于Optuna超参数优化的Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT)模型。通过引入变压器组别、绕组相别、气体类别等静态变量以及可解释性的多头注意力机制,实现多组变压器油中溶解气体的同步预测,提升变电站运维系统的预警效率。相比于传统预测模型,文中模型预测的平均相对误差仅为0.306%,较Transformer模型降低了66.7%,且在短期和长期预测时均具有更高的预测准确度。此外,文中模型的训练时间仅为Transformer模型的1/4,更契合当前智能预警平台中多组别设备同步预测的发展趋势。模型中的多头注意力机制表明氢气和甲烷之间以及二氧化碳和甲烷之间具有强相关关系,其与油纸绝缘裂解的产气规律相一致,进一步表明文中模型具有良好的可解释性,可为多组别设备同步预测提供技术保障。

    Abstract:

    Dissolved gas analysis in transformer oil is regarded as an important indicator for evaluating the operational status of transformers. Accurate prediction of trends in dissolved gases in oil is beneficial for preventing power transformer failures. A Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) model, optimized via Optuna hyperparameter tuning, is proposed to address the technical challenge of low prediction efficiency inherent in traditional models that rely on a single variable. Static variables including transformer group, winding phase, and gas type are introduced into the model, and an interpretable multi-head attention mechanism is integrated as well. Synchronous prediction of all dissolved gases in the oil of multiple transformers is thereby achieved, improving the early warning efficiency of substation operation and maintenance systems. An average relative error of only 0.306% is achieved by the proposed model, representing a 66.7% reduction relative to the Transformer baseline model. Higher predictive accuracy is also demonstrated in both short-term and long-term forecasting. In addition, the model's training time is only one quarter that of the Transformer baseline model. This efficiency aligns with the current trend toward simultaneous prediction across multiple device groups in intelligent early-warning platforms. Strong correlations between hydrogen and methane and between carbon dioxide and methane are indicated by the model's multi-head attention mechanism. These correlations are consistent with the gas generation patterns of oil-paper insulation degradation, further demonstrating the model's good interpretability and providing technical support for synchronous prediction in multiple device groups.

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周延豪,范路,任海龙,赵谡,王亚林,尹毅.基于Temporal Fusion Transformer模型的变压器油中溶解气体预测方法[J].电力工程技术,2026,45(3):37-45,56. ZHOU Yanhao, FAN Lu, REN Hailong, ZHAO Su, WANG Yalin, YIN Yi. Prediction method for dissolved gas in transformer oil based on the Temporal Fusion Transformer model[J]. Electric Power Engineering Technology,2026,45(3):37-45,56.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-07-30
  • 最后修改日期:2025-10-16
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-31
  • 出版日期: 2026-03-28
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