含大规模分布式新能源电网的运行风险定量评估方法
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TM732

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国家重点研发计划资助项目(2022YFB2403900)


Quantitative operation risk assessment method for power grid with large-scale distributed new energy
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    摘要:

    海量异构的分布式新能源大规模并网对电力系统安全稳定运行提出巨大的挑战,开展计及分布式新能源不确定性的运行风险评估研究具有重要的意义。首先,通过分析分布式新能源等值模型动态响应特性的关键影响因素,提出分布式新能源在线动态等值建模方法,以确定满足在线风险评估要求的综合负荷模型及分布式新能源的状态。然后,根据分布式新能源出力特征及多类安全稳定影响因子划分集群,通过降低不确定性变量维数减少参与安全稳定分析的确定性场景数。在此基础上,针对不同的置信区间分别计算满足安全稳定运行要求的控制措施和风险指标,定量评估高概率低损失和低概率高损失场景对电力系统造成的不同后果。最后,实际电网的应用案例结果表明,文中所提的风险评估方法不仅提高含分布式新能源电网的风险评估准确性和计算效率,而且能够更加全面地反映系统的实时运行风险特性。

    Abstract:

    The large-scale integration of massive heterogeneous distributed new energy has brought great challenges to the safe and stable operation of power system. It is of great significance to carry out research on operational risk assessment considering the uncertainty of distributed new energy. Firstly, the key influencing factors of the dynamic response characteristics of the distributed new energy equivalent model are analyzed, and the online dynamic equivalent modeling method of distributed new energy is proposed to determine the comprehensive load model and the state of distributed new energy that meet the requirements of online risk assessment. Then, according to the output characteristics of distributed new energy and multiple types of security and stability impact factors, clusters are divided, and the number of deterministic scenarios participating in safety and stability analysis is reduced by reducing the dimensionality of uncertainty variables. On this basis, the control measures and risk indicators that meet the requirements of safe and stable operation are calculated for different confidence intervals, and the different consequences of high probability low loss and low probability high loss scenarios on the power system are quantitatively evaluated. Finally, the application case results of actual power grid show that the risk assessment method proposed in this paper not only improves the risk assessment accuracy and calculation efficiency of the power grid with distributed new energy, but also can more comprehensively reflect the real-time operation risk characteristics of the system.

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赵帅,郑骁麟,陆涛,杨晓静,姜宁,刘海鹏.含大规模分布式新能源电网的运行风险定量评估方法[J].电力工程技术,2025,44(4):147-158

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  • 收稿日期:2024-09-15
  • 最后修改日期:2024-12-02
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-08-01
  • 出版日期: 2025-07-28
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