基于改进点估计法的HVAC/DC系统可靠性评估
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TM744

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国家自然科学基金资助项目(52377127)


HVAC/DC system reliability evaluation based on improvement point estimation method
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    摘要:

    高压交直流(high voltage alternating current/direct current, HVAC/DC)系统结构复杂,元件种类繁多,采用传统方法进行可靠性评估计算量庞大。为改善HVAC/DC系统可靠性评估效率,文中提出一种基于改进点估计法的HVAC/DC系统可靠性评估方法。该方法分析HVAC/DC系统中各类元件的结构,用狄拉克函数将表示元件状态的离散随机变量进行连续化,使元件状态能够与系统中的负荷、风电等连续随机变量统一采用点估计法进行处理。将点估计法嵌入非线性最小切负荷量进行优化,通过有限次的优化计算可快速估计各种可靠性指标。最后,采用IEEE 14系统改进后的HVAC/DC测试系统分析论证该方法的可用性和局限性。结果表明,该方法在一定条件下能够有效减少HVAC/DC系统可靠性评估的计算量,具有良好的精度和效率表现。

    Abstract:

    The high voltage alternating current/direct current (HVAC/DC) system has a complex structure and a wide variety of components, so the reliability assessment using traditional methods bears huge computational burden. To improve the efficiency of HVAC/DC system reliability assessment, a HVAC/DC system reliability evaluation method based on an improved point estimation method is proposed in this paper. The proposed method analyzes the structure of various components of a typical HVAC/DC system and leverages the Dirac function to smooth the involved discrete random variables, so that the discrete component status can be generally tackled in common with the load, wind power and other continuous random variables using the point estimation method. On top of that, a non-linear program of minimum load shedding is embedded into the point estimation method to efficiently summarize kinds of reliability indices via finite-time optimal power flow calculation. Finally, a modified HVAC/DC test system based on the IEEE 14 system is utilized to demonstrate the usability and limitations of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method can effectively reduce the calculation amount of HVAC/DC system reliability evaluation under certain conditions, and has good accuracy and efficiency performance.

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赵佳琪,冯宁,王越.基于改进点估计法的HVAC/DC系统可靠性评估[J].电力工程技术,2025,44(4):110-118

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  • 收稿日期:2024-12-19
  • 最后修改日期:2025-03-19
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-08-01
  • 出版日期: 2025-07-28
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